2023 MOSPs (Most Outlandish Sleeper Picks)

Normal “sleeper” articles give you information that helps you today - ie. guys you can draft in your upcoming fantasy draft - however these are outlandish sleepers.

Outlandish sleepers = players who either have;

BUT there is a case to be made that they can become fantasy relevant by October, so keep these names on the radar this season (or on the fringes of your radar):

(ADP / Ranking from Fantrax)

After signing Adam Duvall the Red Sox have their outfield set with Yoshida / Duvall / Verdugo on a regular day, and Refsnyder / Duran waiting in the wings. Refsnyder is also slated to get platoon at-bats against lefties

Among players with +100 PA after June 14th to the end of season, Refsnyder was 11th in xwOBA and 24th in xwOBA

Possible scenarios:

Keep an eye out for playing time opening up + his swing decision making + xSLG when he does find small playing time in April

Mitchell has a clear path to playing time, however is projected somewhere between 82 wRC+ to 98 wRC+ depending on the projection system

Mitchell comes with plenty of prospect pedigree as the 1st round pick in the 2020 draft and the Brewers #4 prospect coming into 2022. He also has little competition to take playing time from him even if he struggles to start the year. In the extremely small sample (68 PA) from 2022, we saw the ability to hit the ball hard (109.9mph Max EV), hit the ball in the air (39.4 FB%), and that’s in addition to his impressive speed/arm tools (99th percentile sprint speed, 96th percentile arm strength):

Keep tabs on his barrel rate in 2 week rolling windows to open the season

The signing of Robbie Grossman buries Mathias even deeper into the Rangers depth charts. There’s now a versatile switch hitting OF blocking the trio of Mathias/Duran/Josh H. Smith where Mathias is the red headed step child of the three

Like Mitchell, Mark Mathias in a small sample showed decent ability to hit the ball hard (46.2 Hard Hit%) and hit the ball in the air (36.5 FB%). The biggest obstacle is going to be actually being on the field. The most realistic scenario will be a call-up that pushes Mathias off the 40-man roster putting him on waivers

Look for roster moves that will put him on a lousy team (Washington, Marlins, Royals)

Diamondbacks (pretty much) have their rotation set with Gallen / Kelly / Bumgarner / Davies / Nelson so Jameson will most likely open the season on the Reno Aces rotation (as he was for most of 2022)

Jameson had a cup of coffee at the end of last year…

…which went mostly unnoticed because by that point the fantasy season was over for most leagues (and the Diamondbacks were out of playoff contention). Of course this was a huge over-performance compared to his xStats (which were a disaster), but still something to play off of when he gets called up again in 2023

Look for the health of the Diamondbacks rotation… aka Gallen

Originally when I thought of Bouchard he was blocked by Randal Grichuk, who has since undergone surgery for a sports hernia. Bouchard now looks to break camp with the team and have a role right away

Last year Bouchard had a 150 wRC+ in Triple-A Albuquerque before being called up to Colorado and posting a 158 wRC+, that’s good, but he only had one barrel in 50 BBE, that’s bad, but his walk rate was 21.6%, that’s good, but his whiff rate was 27.8%, that’s bad

The case for Bouchard comes down to a guy at Coors, with a decent discipline who can probably inflate his offensive stats with a mid .300s BABIP

Rockies first 2 series are in San Diego then LA, so don’t look for any production until their April 6th home opener against the Nationals